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› Find signed collectible books: 'Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk'
With the stock market breaking records almost daily, leaving longtime market analysts shaking their heads and revising their forecasts, a study of the concept of risk seems quite timely. Peter Bernstein has written a comprehensive history of man's efforts to understand risk and probability, beginning with early gamblers in ancient Greece, continuing through the 17th-century French mathematicians Pascal and Fermat and up to modern chaos theory. Along the way he demonstrates that understanding risk underlies everything from game theory to bridge-building to winemaking. [via]
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› Find signed collectible books: 'Applied Bayesian and Classical Inference: The Case of the Federalist Papers'
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› Find signed collectible books: 'Applied Statistics for Business and Economics'
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› Find signed collectible books: 'The Blind Watchmaker'
Richard Dawkins is not a shy man. Edward Larson's research shows that most scientists today are not formally religious, but Dawkins is an in-your-face atheist in the witty British style:
I want to persuade the reader, not just that the Darwinian world-view happens to be true, but that it is the only known theory that could, in principle, solve the mystery of our existence.
The title of this 1986 work, Dawkins's second book, refers to the Rev. William Paley's 1802 work, Natural Theology, which argued that just as finding a watch would lead you to conclude that a watchmaker must exist, the complexity of living organisms proves that a Creator exists. Not so, says Dawkins: "All appearances to the contrary, the only watchmaker in nature is the blind forces of physics, albeit deployed in a very special way... it is the blind watchmaker."
Dawkins is a hard-core scientist: he doesn't just tell you what is so, he shows you how to find out for yourself. For this book, he wrote Biomorph, one of the first artificial life programs. You can check Dawkins's results on your own Mac or PC. [via]
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› Find signed collectible books: 'Blind Watchmaker 1.2: An Evolution Simulation/Mac Version'
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› Find signed collectible books: 'Blind Watchmaker: Why the Evidence of Evolution Reveals a Universe Without Design'
Richard Dawkins is not a shy man. Edward Larson's research shows that most scientists today are not formally religious, but Dawkins is an in-your-face atheist in the witty British style:
I want to persuade the reader, not just that the Darwinian world-view happens to be true, but that it is the only known theory that could, in principle, solve the mystery of our existence.
The title of this 1986 work, Dawkins's second book, refers to the Rev. William Paley's 1802 work, Natural Theology, which argued that just as finding a watch would lead you to conclude that a watchmaker must exist, the complexity of living organisms proves that a Creator exists. Not so, says Dawkins: "All appearances to the contrary, the only watchmaker in nature is the blind forces of physics, albeit deployed in a very special way... it is the blind watchmaker."
Dawkins is a hard-core scientist: he doesn't just tell you what is so, he shows you how to find out for yourself. For this book, he wrote Biomorph, one of the first artificial life programs. You can check Dawkins's results on your own Mac or PC. [via]
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› Find signed collectible books: 'Chance: A Guide to Gambling, Love, the Stock Market, And Just About Everything Else'
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› Find signed collectible books: 'Chance and Chaos'
How do scientists look at chance, or randomness, and chaos in physical systems? In answering this question for a general audience, Ruelle writes in the best French tradition: he has produced an authoritative and elegant book--a model of clarity, succinctness, and a humor bordering at times on the sardonic. [via]
› Find signed collectible books: 'Chances Are: Adventures in Probability'
Our lives are played out in the arena of chance. However little we recognize it in our day-to-day existence, we are always riding the odds, seeking out certainty but settlingreluctantlyfor likelihood, building our beliefs on the shadowy props of probability. Chances Are is the story of mans millennia-long search for the tools to manage the recurrent but unpredictableto help us prevent, or at least mitigate, the seemingly random blows of disaster, disease, and injustice. In these pages, we meet the brilliant individuals who developed the first abstract formulations of probability, as well as the intrepid visionaries who recognized their practical applicationsfrom gamblers to military strategists to meteorologists to medical researchers, from blackjack to our own mortality.
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› Find signed collectible books: 'Choice and Chance: An Introduction to Inductive Logic'
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› Find signed collectible books: 'Detecting Patterns Book 3'
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› Find signed collectible books: 'Elementary Probability'
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› Find signed collectible books: 'The Emergence of Probability: A Philosophical Study of Early Ideas About Probability, Introduction and Statistical Inference'
Historical records show that there was no real concept of probability in Europe before the mid-seventeenth century although the use of dice and other randomizing objects was commonplace. Ian Hacking here presents a philosophical critique of early ideas about probability, induction and statistical inference and the growth of this new family of ideas in the fifteenth, sixteenth and seventeenth centuries. The contemporary debate centres round such figures as Pascal, Leibniz and Jacques Bernoulli. What brought about the change in ideas? The author invokes in his explanation a wider intellectual framework involving the growth of science, economics and the theology of the period. [via]
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› Find signed collectible books: 'The Emergence of Probability: A Philosophical Study of Early Ideas About Probability, Induction And Statistical Inference'
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› Find signed collectible books: 'The Emergence of Probability: A Philosophical Study of Early Ideas About Probability, Induction And Statistical Inference'
Historical records show that there was no real concept of probability in Europe before the mid-seventeenth century, although the use of dice and other randomizing objects was commonplace. Ian Hacking presents a philosophical critique of early ideas about probability, induction, and statistical inference and the growth of this new family of ideas in the fifteenth, sixteenth, and seventeenth centuries. Hacking invokes a wide intellectual framework involving the growth of science, economics, and the theology of the period. He argues that the transformations that made it possible for probability concepts to emerge have constrained all subsequent development of probability theory and determine the space within which philosophical debate on the subject is still conducted. First published in 1975, this edition includes an introduction that contextualizes his book in light of developing philosophical trends. Ian Hacking is the winner of the Holberg International Memorial Prize 2009. [via]
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› Find signed collectible books: 'Exploring Data'
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› Find signed collectible books: 'Fifty Challenging Problems in Probability With Solutions'
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› Find signed collectible books: 'Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets'
If the prescriptions for getting rich that are outlined in books such as The Millionaire Next Door and Rich Dad Poor Dad are successful enough to make the books bestsellers, then one must ask, Why aren't there more millionaires? In Fooled by Randomness, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a professional trader and mathematics professor, examines what randomness means in business and in life and why human beings are so prone to mistake dumb luck for consummate skill. This eccentric and highly personal exploration of the nature of randomness meanders from the court of Croesus and trading rooms in New York and London to Russian roulette, Monte Carlo engines, and the philosophy of Karl Popper. Part of what makes this book so good is Taleb's ability to make seemingly arcane mathematical concepts (at least to this reviewer) entirely relevant in evaluating and understanding everything from the stock market to the success of those millionaires cited in the aforementioned bestsellers. Here's an articulate, wise, and humorous meditation on the nature of success and failure that anyone who wants a little more of the former would do well to consider. Highly recommended. --Harry C. Edwards [via]
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› Find signed collectible books: 'Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in the Markets and in Life'
If the prescriptions for getting rich that are outlined in books such as The Millionaire Next Door and Rich Dad Poor Dad are successful enough to make the books bestsellers, then one must ask, Why aren't there more millionaires? In Fooled by Randomness, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a professional trader and mathematics professor, examines what randomness means in business and in life and why human beings are so prone to mistake dumb luck for consummate skill. This eccentric and highly personal exploration of the nature of randomness meanders from the court of Croesus and trading rooms in New York and London to Russian roulette, Monte Carlo engines, and the philosophy of Karl Popper. Part of what makes this book so good is Taleb's ability to make seemingly arcane mathematical concepts (at least to this reviewer) entirely relevant in evaluating and understanding everything from the stock market to the success of those millionaires cited in the aforementioned bestsellers. Here's an articulate, wise, and humorous meditation on the nature of success and failure that anyone who wants a little more of the former would do well to consider. Highly recommended. --Harry C. Edwards [via]
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› Find signed collectible books: 'Innumeracy'
This is the book that made "innumeracy" a household word, at least in some households. Paulos admits that "at least part of the motivation for any book is anger, and this book is no exception. I'm distressed by a society which depends so completely on mathematics and science and yet seems to indifferent to the innumeracy and scientific illiteracy of so many of its citizens."
But that is not all that drives him. The difference between our pretensions and reality is absurd and humorous, and the numerate can see this better than those who don't speak math. "I think there's something of the divine in these feelings of our absurdity, and they should be cherished, not avoided."
Paulos is not entirely successful at balancing anger and absurdity, but he tries. His diatribes against astrology, bad math education, Freud, and willful ignorance are leavened with jokes, mathematical or the sort (he claims) favored by the numerate.
It remains to be seen if Innumeracy will indeed be able, as Hofstadter hoped, to "help launch a revolution in math education that would do for innumeracy what Sabin and Salk did for polio"--but many of the improvements Paulos suggested have come to pass within 10 years. Only time will tell if the generation raised on these new principles is more resistant to innumeracy--and need only worry about being incomputable. --Mary Ellen Curtin [via]
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› Find signed collectible books: 'An Introduction to Probability and Inductive Logic'
This is an introductory textbook on probability and induction written by one of the world's foremost philosophers of science. The book has been designed to offer maximal accessibility to the widest range of students (not only those majoring in philosophy) and assumes no formal training in elementary symbolic logic. It offers a comprehensive course covering all basic definitions of induction and probability, and considers such topics as decision theory, Bayesianism, frequency ideas, and the philosophical problem of induction. The key features of the book are: * A lively and vigorous prose style* Lucid and systematic organization and presentation of the ideas* Many practical applications* A rich supply of exercises drawing on examples from such fields as psychology, ecology, economics, bioethics, engineering, and political science* Numerous brief historical accounts of how fundamental ideas of probability and induction developed.* A full bibliography of further reading Although designed primarily for courses in philosophy, the book could certainly be read and enjoyed by those in the social sciences (particularly psychology, economics, political science and sociology) or medical sciences such as epidemiology seeking a reader-friendly account of the basic ideas of probability and induction. Ian Hacking is University Professor, University of Toronto. He is Fellow of the Royal Society of Canada, Fellow of the British Academy, and Fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences. he is author of many books including five previous books with Cambridge (The Logic of Statistical Inference, Why Does Language Matter to Philosophy?, The Emergence of Probability, Representing and Intervening, and The Taming of Chance). [via]
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› Find signed collectible books: 'A First Course In Probability'
Introduction to Probability Models, 8th Edition, continues to introduce and inspire readers to the art of applying probability theory to phenomena in fields such as engineering, computer science, management and actuarial science, the physical and social sciences, and operations research. Now revised and updated, this best-selling book retains its hallmark intuitive, lively writing style, captivating introduction to applications from diverse disciplines, and plentiful exercises and worked-out examples.
The 8th Edition includes five new sections and numerous new examples and exercises, many of which focus on strategies applicable in risk industries such as insurance or actuarial work.
The five new sections include:
* Section 3.6.4 presents an elementary approach, using only conditional expectation, for computing the expected time until a sequence of independent and identically distributed random variables produce a specified pattern.
* Section 3.6.5 derives an identity involving compound Poisson random variables and then uses it to obtain an elegant recursive formula for the probabilities of compound Poisson random variables whose incremental increases are nonnegative and integer valued
* Section 5.4.3 is concerned with a conditional Poisson process, a type of process that is widely applicable in the risk industries
* Section 7.10 presents a derivation of and a new characterization for the classical insurance ruin probability.
* Section 11.8 presents a simulation procedure known as coupling from the past; its use enables one to exactly generate the value of a random variable whose distribution is that of the stationary distribution of a given Markov chain, even in cases where the stationary distribution cannot itself be explicitly determined.
Other Academic Press books by Sheldon Ross:
Simulation 3rd Ed., ISBN:0-12-598053-1
Probability Models for Computer Science, ISBN 0-12-598051-5
Introduction to Probability and Statistics for Engineers and Scientists, 2nd Ed., ISBN: 0-12-598472-3
* Classic text by best-selling author
* Continues the tradition of expository excellence
* Contains compulsory material for Exam 3 of the
Society of Actuaries [via]
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› Find signed collectible books: 'An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Application'
Major changes in this edition include the substitution of probabilistic arguments for combinatorial artifices, and the addition of new sections on branching processes, Markov chains, and the De Moivre-Laplace theorem. [via]
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› Find signed collectible books: 'Introduction to Stochastic Processes'
An excellent introduction for electrical, electronics engineers and computer scientists who would like to have a good, basic understanding of the stochastic processes! This clearly written book responds to the increasing interest in the study of systems that vary in time in a random manner. It presents an introductory account of some of the important topics in the theory of the mathematical models of such systems. The selected topics are conceptually interesting and have fruitful application in various branches of science and technology. [via]
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› Find signed collectible books: 'An Investigation of the Laws of Thought'
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› Find signed collectible books: 'Lady Luck: The Theory of Probability'
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› Find signed collectible books: 'The Legacy of Beulah Land'
offered by a trusted seller [via]
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› Find signed collectible books: 'A Mathematician Plays the Stock Market'
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› Find signed collectible books: 'Measure, Integral and Probability'
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› Find signed collectible books: 'Philosophical Theories of Probability'
The Twentieth Century has seen a dramatic rise in the use of probability and statistics in almost all fields of research. This has stimulated many new philosophical ideas on probability.
Philosophical Theories of Probability is the first book to present a clear, comprehensive and systematic account of these various theories and to explain how they relate to one another. Gillies also offers a distinctive version of the propensity theory of probability, and the intersubjective interpretation, which develops the subjective theory. [via]
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› Find signed collectible books: 'Probability: An Introduction'
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› Find signed collectible books: 'Probability and Measure'
A senior-graduate level text and reference that links the disciplines of probability and measure theory. Including many practical problems and examples, it begins with an introduction to Borel's normal number theorem, proved by calculus alone, followed by short sections that establish the existence and fundamental properties of probability measures, including Lebesque measure on the unit interval. Coverage includes topics in measure, integration, random variables and expected values, convergence of distributions, derivatives and conditional probability, and stochastic processes. [via]
› Find signed collectible books: 'Probability and Random Processes'
This completely revised text provides a simple but rigorous introduction to probability. It discusses a wide range of random processes in some depth with many examples, and gives the beginner some flavor of more advanced work, by suitable choice of material. The book begins with basic material commonly covered in first-year undergraduate mathematics and statistics courses, and finishes with topics found in graduate courses. Important features of this edition include new and expanded sections in the early chapters, providing more illustrative examples and introducing more ideas early on; two new chapters providing more comprehensive treatment of the simpler properties of martingales and diffusion processes; and more exercises at the ends of almost all sections, with many new problems at the ends of chapters. The companion volume Probability and Random Processes: Problems and Solutions includes complete worked solutions to all exercises and problems of this edition. This proven text will be useful for mathematics and natural science undergraduates at all levels, and as a reference book for graduates and all those interested in the applications of probability theory. [via]
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› Find signed collectible books: 'Probability And Statistical Inference'
This user-friendly introduction to the mathematics of probability and statistics (for readers with a background in calculus) uses numerous applications--drawn from biology, education, economics, engineering, environmental studies, exercise science, health science, manufacturing, opinion polls, psychology, sociology, and sports--to help explain and motivate the concepts. A review of selected mathematical techniques is included, and an accompanying CD-ROM contains many of the figures (many animated), and the data included in the examples and exercises (stored in both Minitab compatible format and ASCII). Empirical and Probability Distributions. Probability. Discrete Distributions. Continuous Distributions. Multivariable Distributions. Sampling Distribution Theory. Importance of Understanding Variability. Estimation. Tests of Statistical Hypotheses. Theory of Statistical Inference. Quality Improvement Through Statistical Methods. For anyone interested in the Mathematics of Probability and Statistics.
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› Find signed collectible books: 'Probability and Statistics'
The revision of this well-respected text presents a balance of the classical and Bayesian methods. The theoretical and practical sides of both probability and statistics are considered. New content areas include the Vorel- Kolmogorov Paradox, Confidence Bands for the Regression Line, the Correction for Continuity, and the Delta Method. [via]
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› Find signed collectible books: 'Probability and Statistics for Engineering and the Sciences'
Although the Fourth Edition made significant strides towards the incorporation of computer output and the use of computer-based methods, this has been even further strengthened in the Fifth Edition. In this book, a wealth of exercises are provided throughout each section, designed to reinforce learning and the logical comprehension of topics. The use of real data is incorporated much more extensively than in any other book on the market. Consist of strong coverage of computer-based methods, especially in the coverage of analysis of variance and regression. This text stresses mastery of methods most often used in medical research, with specific reference to actual medical literature and actual medical research. The approach minimizes mathematical formulation, yet gives complete explanations of all important concepts. Every new concept is systematically developed through completely worked-out examples from current medical research problems. Computer output is used to illustrate concepts when appropriate. [via]
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› Find signed collectible books: 'Probability and Statistics for Engineering and the Sciences With Infotrac'
This market-leading text provides a comprehensive introduction to probability and statistics for students in engineering and the physical and natural sciences. It is a proven, accurate book with great examples from an outstanding author, Jay Devore. Through the use of lively and realistic examples, students go beyond simply learning about statistics--they actually experience its potential. The book emphasizes concepts, models, methodology and applications, as opposed to rigorous mathematical development and derivations. [via]
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› Find signed collectible books: 'Probability and Statistics for Engineering and the Sciences/Book and Disk'
This text emphasizes models, methodology, and applications rather than rigorous mathematical development and theory. It uses real data in both exercise sets and examples. New to this edition are the following: real data sets are updated and strengthened; coverage of computer-based methods has increased, especially in analysis of variance and regression; a section on multiple regression has been rewritten; data analysis coverage has been increased in Chapter One; the section on probability has been modernized and expanded; and the chapter on quality control has been updated. [via]
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› Find signed collectible books: 'Probability and Statistics for Engineers and Scientists'
This classic book provides a rigorous introduction to basic probability theory and statistical inference that is motivated by interesting, relevant applications. It assumes readers have a background in calculus, and offers a unique balance of theory and methodology. Chapter topics cover an introduction to statistics and data analysis, probability, random variables and probability distributions, mathematical expectation, some discrete probability distributions, some continuous probability distributions, functions of random variables, fundamental sampling distributions and data descriptions, one- and two-sample estimation problems, one- and two-sample tests of hypotheses, simple linear regression and correlation, multiple linear regression and certain nonlinear regression models, one factor experiments: general, factorial experiments (two or more factors), 2
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› Find signed collectible books: 'A Probability Path'
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› Find signed collectible books: 'Probability Theory: A Concise Course'
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› Find signed collectible books: 'Probability: Theory and Examples'
Modern and measure-theory based, this text is intended primarily for the first-year graduate course in probability theory. [via]
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› Find signed collectible books: 'Probability Theory: The Logic of Science'
Going beyond the conventional mathematics of probability theory, this study views the subject in a wider context. It discusses new results, along with applications of probability theory to a variety of problems. The book contains many exercises and is suitable for use as a textbook on graduate-level courses involving data analysis. Aimed at readers already familiar with applied mathematics at an advanced undergraduate level or higher, it is of interest to scientists concerned with inference from incomplete information. [via]
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› Find signed collectible books: 'Probability With Martingales'
This is a masterly introduction to the modern and rigorous theory of probability. The author adopts the martingale theory as his main theme and moves at a lively pace through the subject's rigorous foundations. Measure theory is introduced and then immediately exploited by being applied to real probability theory. Classical results, such as Kolmogorov's Strong Law of Large Numbers and Three-Series Theorem are proved by martingale techniques. A proof of the Central Limit Theorem is also given. The author's style is entertaining and inimitable with pedagogy to the fore. Exercises play a vital role; there is a full quota of interesting and challenging problems, some with hints. [via]
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› Find signed collectible books: 'Probability, Statistics and Truth'
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› Find signed collectible books: 'Problems in Probability Theory, Mathematical Statistics and Theory of Random Functions'
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› Find signed collectible books: 'Statistics by Example: Finding Models'
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› Find signed collectible books: 'Struck by Lightning: The Curious World of Probabilities'
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› Find signed collectible books: 'Subjective Probability: The Real Thing'
This book offers a concise survey of basic probability theory from a thoroughly subjective point of view whereby probability theory is a mode of judgement. Written by one of the greatest figures in the field of probability theory, the book is both a summation and a synthesis of a lifetime of wrestling with such problems and issues. [via]
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› Find signed collectible books: 'Taking Chances: Winning With Probability'
Most of us enjoy pleasant surprises and know that many of life's greatest rewards are obtained by taking chances. This is true whether we are playing the lottery or deciding whether or not to buy flowers when we are unsure if it might be our girlfriend's birthday. So, if you enjoy taking chances and winning--and it's a safe bet that you do--this book helps you do so in a more intelligent way.
John Haigh is Reader in Mathematics at Sussex University, and his book covers a remarkably large number of topics. He tells you how to take chances playing the football pools and about the role of chance in sports such as tennis, golf, and soccer. What points in tennis are most important? If a soccer player gets a yellow card in 10 percent of games and is suspended for one game whenever he has accumulated two yellow cards, how often is he suspended? What is the chance that a team that scores the first goal goes on to win? He also writes about casino games, bridge, and Monopoly, explaining why orange is the best color of Monopoly property to own.
The book is practical rather than theoretical. It is written for anyone with a curious mind, aged perhaps 16 and up. It is not a textbook, but introduces concepts, such as random walk and game theory, that are familiar to professional mathematicians. There are technical appendices and test-yourself quizzes for readers who want to explore more. A bonus is advice on the lottery. However, with typical vividness, he cautions that if the lottery had begun with the ancient druids, and your ancestors had bought 50 tickets every week for the last 5000 years, then by now your family could expect to have won the jackpot just once! --Richard Weber, Amazon.co.uk [via]
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› Find signed collectible books: 'The Taming of Chance'
In this important new study Ian Hacking continues the enquiry into the origins and development of certain characteristic modes of contemporary thought undertaken in such previous works as his best selling Emergence of Probability. Professor Hacking shows how by the late nineteenth century it became possible to think of statistical patterns as explanatory in themselves, and to regard the world as not necessarily deterministic in character. Combining detailed scientific historical research with characteristic philosophic breath and verve, The Taming of Chance brings out the relations among philosophy, the physical sciences, mathematics and the development of social institutions, and provides a unique and authoritative analysis of the "probabilization" of the Western world. [via]

› Find signed collectible books: 'Weighing Chances Book 2'
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